Downzoning Chicago

Chicago's 49th ward, in the Roger's Park neighborhood, is shrinking.  Situated on the north side of Chicago adjacent to the lake and the border with Evanston, it has several red line L stops in the vicinity.  And for some reason it is getting smaller.

The 49th ward, well serviced by transit and on the shores of Lake Michigan.

The shrinking was mostly in the last decennial, as you can see in the demographics of Rogers Park:

1990	60,378		8.7%
2000	63,484		5.1%
2010	54,991		−13.4%

Roger's Park lost significant population after a few decades of gain. It is not clear why.  Crimes are down in the neighborhood.  Big time.

The current alderman worked with the local community to reduce density.

Below are the zoning changes that resulted from the process: 
Downzoned portions of the 7300 block of Bell from R4 multifamily to R3 two flat/single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1400 block of Birchwood from RT4 multifamily to RS3 two flat/single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1300 block of Chase from RT4 multifamily to RS3 two flat/single family.
Downzoned portions of the 2000 block of Chase from RT4 multifamily to RS3 two flat/single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1400 block of Estes from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1500 block of Estes from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1800 block of Estes from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1900 block of Estes from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 2000 block of Estes from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1200 block of Farwell from RT4 multifamily to RS3 two flat/single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1400 block of Greenleaf from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1800 block of Greenleaf from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1900 block of Greenleaf from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 2000 block of Greenleaf from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1600 block of Lunt from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1800 block of Lunt from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1600 block of Jarvis from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1700 blocks of Jarvis from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1900 block of Lunt from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 2000 block of Lunt from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 7300 block of Oakley from R4 multifamily to R3 two flat/single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1200 block of Pratt from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 6900 block of Ridge from RS3 two flat/single family to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 7000 block of Ridge from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 7100 block of Ridge from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1500 block of Touhy from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1600 block of Touhy from RT4 multifamily to RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1800 block of Touhy from RT4 multifamily to either RS3 two flat/single family or RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 1900 block of Touhy from RT4 multifamily to either RS3 two flat/single family or RS2 single family.
Downzoned portions of the 2000 block of Touhy from R4 multifamily to R2 single family.


The 49th ward is downzoned!  But what is the cause of this push to downzoning?

Did the downzoning cause population loss, or did population loss cause downzoning?  Unfortunately Chicago's zoning maps and laws are a byzantine piecemeal thing not easily parsed.

According to Zillow, Roger's Park property values increased 12.9%.  Over that same period the nation wide inflation rate was 1.6%, making property values in Roger's Park rising at a rate that is 8 times the rate of inflation.  So what is going on in the 49th ward?  It is getting smaller, less dense, and more valuable all at the same time.

The shifting tides of Chicago transit

The Chicago Transit Authority's ridership numbers came out a few weeks ago, and the numbers look good on first glance.

In 2012, Chicago’s mass transit system saw its largest growth in 22 years, the Chicago Transit Authority announced on Wednesday.  The CTA said that ridership grew to 545.6 million rides last year, an increase of 2.4 percent from 2011, according to a statement from CTA.  Rail ridership was at its highest level in 50 years, increasing to 231.1 million rides in 2012, according to the CTA.  Bus ridership was also up, increasing to 314.4 million rides, an increase of 4.05 million rides from 2011.

Stepping back and looking at the RTA's numbers as a whole since 1980 gives nuance.  Ridership on the CTA's rail lines is up since 1980, but was more than offset by a decline in bus riders.  Thus the CTA is providing fewer riders today than in 1980.  The system as a whole is up from its trough in 1995, but below its 1980 levels.  The declines all came from bus transit.  Both the CTA rail and Metra are up from 1980 but the CTA bus and PACE are down.  And thus the RTA as a whole is down since 1980.



It shouldn't be that surprising that the CTA gives fewer rides today than it did over 30 years ago, as the population of Chicago is smaller today than it was 30 years ago.  However the region is bigger today, so it does not explain the RTA's net losses.  What is surprising is the rise of rail transit and the decline of bus usage, not just in Chicago but the whole region.

This presents a real puzzle.  Does the decline of bus ridership and rise of rail ridership reflect a changing taste in RTA patrons?  Does it reflect the demographic changes of Chicago's neighborhoods; rail accessible neighborhoods growing in population while bus accessible neighborhoods declined?

It is also possible that we are looking at a shift in office space.  As the Loop continues to transform from sleepy downtown to vibrant city core and suburban employers move their offices in or near downtown, this might be the result of a change in employment patterns.